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Welcome to the Weekly Commentary
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Last Week's Recap
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EUR/USD EUR/USD recovered some of the ground lost last week as
the European Union Summit concluded in Brussels with an agreement that would make the ECB the EZ’s main financial supervisor by January 1st. Also, Greece expects to receive the next portion of bailout money after satisfying the fiscal consolidation
requirements of the troika. The week began on a soft note, with the rate making its weekly low of 1.2890 on Monday after U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales both rose +1.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.6% and +0.7% respectively. The rate then
rose sharply on Tuesday after speculation that Spain would finally request a sovereign bailout at the EU summit later in the week. Tuesday’s numbers included U.S. Core CPI, which rose +0.1% m/m, versus +0.2% expected, also, German ZEW Economic Sentiment came
out with a reading of -11.5, versus -14.6 expected, and EZ CPI, which rose +2.6% y/y, versus +2.7% expected and EZ Core CPI, which increased +1.5% y/y, versus a reading of +1.6% that was expected. The pair then made its weekly high on Wednesday as Spanish
10-year bond yields fell to 5.5%, their lowest level in 7 months. Also, Moody’s reaffirmed Spain’s sovereign debt rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook. Economic data on Wednesday had U.S. Building Permits increase by +0.89M, versus +0.81M that was expected.
On Thursday, the rate reversed direction and traded lower as the EU Summit began in Brussels and the Bank of Spain announced a record €179B in bad loans in August, which comes to over 10.5% of total loans, versus 9.86% in July. Economic numbers on Thursday
saw U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rise to 388K versus an expected 367K, while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 5.7, versus a reading of 1.3 that was expected. The pair continued lower on Friday as the EU Summit concluded in Brussels with leaders agreeing
to have the ECB supervise all 6000 banks in the Eurozone. After the summit, German Chancellor Merkel stated that, "There are complicated questions to clarify and we'll see in December if we complete it or not…For now, the political will is there. " EUR/USD
went on to close at 1.3023, with an overall gain of +0.6% from its previous weekly close.
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USD/JPY
USD/JPY gained ground last week as the United States reported mostly better than expected economic numbers and with very few economic releases out of Japan.
The pair began the week trading off of its weekly low of 78.32 on Monday as risk appetite increased and the United States reported favourable Retail Sales numbers and Japan’s Revised Industrial Production fell -1.6% m/m, versus -1.3% expected. The pair continued
rising on Tuesday after positive economic data out of the United States. On Wednesday, the rate traded higher as U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts both came out better than anticipated. Thursday saw the rate continue higher, making its weekly high of
79.46 despite a rise in U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. The pair then consolidated its gains on Friday after the Japanese All Industries Activity increased by +0.1% as was anticipated, bringing USD/JPY to close at 79.29, showing an overall gain of +1.1% for the
week.
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GBP/USD
GBP/USD continued selling off last week as the UK reported mixed economic data and the MPC Meeting Minutes revealed a unanimous decision to keep rates and the
Asset Purchase Facility unchanged. The week began on a soft note with Cable consolidating at a slightly lower level on Monday after the UK Rightmove HPI increased +3.5% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.6%, and positive U.S. Retail Sales numbers. The pair
then traded higher on Tuesday as UK CPI increased +2.2% y/y as was widely anticipated, while UK PPI Input dropped -0.2% m/m, versus an expected flat reading, and UK RPI, which increased +2.6% y/y as was widely expected. Cable continued higher on Wednesday,
making its weekly high of 1.6177 as the MPC Meeting Minutes showed a unanimous decision on keeping the Official Bank Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged. The minutes also unveiled the fact that members were divided as to whether to continue the
Asset Purchase Facility after the program ends in November. Economic data had the UK Claimant Count Change show a decline of -4.0K, significantly more than the -0.2K decrease that was anticipated, and the UK Unemployment Rate, which dropped to 7.9% from 8.1%.
The pair then sold off on Thursday despite UK Retail Sales increasing by +0.6% m/m, versus an expected rise of +0.4%. The pair continued selling off on Friday, making its weekly low of 1.5996 after U.S. Existing Home Sales came out better than expected and
despite UK Public Sector Net Borrowing coming out at 10.7B, versus 11.9B that was expected. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.5998, showing an overall loss of -0.4%.
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AUD/USD
AUD/USD extended its previous week’s gains as the RBA Meeting Minutes for October divulged the reasons for its most recent rate cut of 25 bps. The week began
with the rate consolidating after making its weekly low of 1.0201 after Australian Home Loans increased +1.8% m/m, versus +1.4% expected, and Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales, which increased by +4.7% m/m, versus a previous reading of +4.3%, revised upward
from +3.6%. The pair then began trading higher on Tuesday after the RBA released it Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for its October meeting. The minutes cited weaker domestic growth, a slowdown in the job market and falling commodities prices as the main reasons
for lowering the Cash Rate. The minutes noted that, "In response to the weaker economic outlook, further monetary stimulus had been put in place in the major advanced economies. The weaker outlook had also seen bulk commodity prices decline and, while prices
for steel and iron ore had partially retraced the sharp falls that occurred over July and August, members noted that there had been a noticeable decline in the appetite for spending by Australian companies in some parts of the resources sector." The pair continued
gaining on Wednesday as the Australian MI Leading Index rose +0.5% m/m, versus a previous reading of +0.3%. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.0410 on Thursday as the Australian NAB Quarterly Business Confidence index came out with a reading of -2, versus
a previous print of -3. On Friday, the pair sold off somewhat bringing AUD/USD to close at 1.0326, with an overall gain of +1.0% from its previous weekly close.
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USD/CAD
USD/CAD extended its previous week’s gains as the Loonie was under considerable pressure after a speech by BOC Governor Mark Carney on Monday. The week began
on a positive note, with the rate rising after the BOC’s Business Outlook Survey noted that, "The euro area is stagnating as it struggles with an underlying balance-of-payments crisis. The United States is at the edge of a fiscal cliff. China and other emerging
markets are trying to sustain rapid growth amid weak demand in their traditional export markets." Also, BOC Governor Carney stated in a speech on Monday that, "The euro area is stagnating as it struggles with an underlying balance-of-payments crisis. The United
States is at the edge of a fiscal cliff. China and other emerging markets are trying to sustain rapid growth amid weak demand in their traditional export markets. "There is a synchronous slowdown under way in the global economy. This past weekend in Tokyo,
when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) marked down its growth forecast, no region or major economy was spared. Further, the IMF warned that downside risks have risen." The pair continued strengthening on Tuesday despite Canadian Manufacturing Sales increasing
+1.5% m/m, while Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases came out at 6.90B, versus 8.72B that was expected. Wednesday saw the rate drop sharply as asset flows favoured the Loonie over the Greenback. On Thursday, the pair recovered most of its previous day’s
losses after making its weekly low of 0.9763 as Canadian Wholesale Sales increased by +0.5% m/m, versus +0.2% expected. The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9938 on Friday after Canadian Core CPI and CPI both increased by only +0.2% m/m, versus an expected
+0.3% rise, bringing USD/CAD to close at 0.9934, showing an overall increase of +1.4% for the week.
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NZD/USD
NZD/USD showed very little change last week as the United States reported mixed economic data and with very few economic releases out of New Zealand. The week
began with the rate trading at a slightly lower level on Monday as the United States reported favourable Retail Sales numbers. The pair then consolidated at a slightly higher level after making its weekly low of 0.8107 on Tuesday after New Zealand CPI increased
by +0.3% q/q, versus +0.5% that was expected. The rate then rose on Wednesday despite positive housing numbers out of the United States. On Thursday, the pair made its weekly high of 0.8228 after a negative U.S. Initial Jobless Claims number before trading
lower. The rate then continued lower on Friday after New Zealand Credit Card Spending increased +1.5% y/y, versus a previous reading of +1.9%, bringing NZD/USD to close at 0.8153, with a loss of only 7 pips an virtually unchanged on the week.
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Weekly Market Watch
The Week Ahead
USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the Fed’s Rate Decision on Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with a speech
by FOMC Member Pianalto, but Tuesday is quiet. Wednesday’s key events include Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.6), New Home Sales (386K), Crude Oil Inventories (last 2.9M), the FOMC Rate Statement and Fed Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%). Thursday then features Core
Durable Goods Orders (0.8%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (366K), Durable Goods Orders (6.9%) and Pending Home Sales (2.4%). Friday’s important data then concludes the week with Advance GDP (1.8%), the Advance GDP Price Index (2.0%) and the Revised University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (82.7).
AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, featuring CPI data on Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, and Tuesday’s key events include the CB Leading Index (last
0.0%). Wednesday then features CPI (0.5%) and the Trimmed Mean CPI (0.6%), while Thursday and Friday offer little notable data. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0410, 1.0442/73 and 1.0612/23, with support noted at 1.0292, 1.0201 and 1.0148/78.
NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, featuring the RBNZ Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday is a Bank Holiday, and Tuesday and Wednesday are quiet, so Thursday starts the week’s highlights off with the RBNZ’s Official
Cash Rate Decision (2.50%) and the RBNZ Rate Statement. That concludes the week’s important data since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8204/64, 0.8317/54 and 0.8468. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.8107/43,
0.7912/66 and 0.7805.
GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, featuring Preliminary GDP data on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with BBA Mortgage Approvals (30.9K) and a speech by BOE Governor King. Wednesday’s
key events include CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-6), while Thursday features Preliminary GDP (0.6%) and a speech by MPC Member Tucker. That concludes the week’s important data since Friday is quiet. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6033/66,
1.6177 and 1.6216/1.6308, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5975 and 1.5894/1.5912.
EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the German Ifo Business Climate survey on Wednesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey (-10.8). Wednesday’s
key events include French Flash Manufacturing PMI (43.7), French Flash Services PMI (45.6), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.1), German Flash Services PMI (50.1), the German Ifo Business Climate survey (101.7), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (46.6), EZ Flash
Services PMI (46.5), the tentatively scheduled German 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 1.52%, with a 1.2 bid-to-cover ratio), and a speech by ECB President Draghi. Thursday then features little of note, while Friday’s important data then concludes
the week with the GfK German Consumer Climate survey (5.9) and the Spanish Unemployment Rate (25.2%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3071, 1.3139/72 and 1.3283, with support showing at 1.2803/90, 1.2747 and 1.2691.
JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, featuring Trade Balance data (-0.74T) and a speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa on Monday. The only other highlight for the week is due out on Friday, when Tokyo Core CPI (-\0.5%) will
be released. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 79.46, 79.65/80.09 and 80.61, with support indicated at 78.83/79.21, 77.94/78.27 and 77.25/43.
CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the BOC’s Rate Decision on Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with Core Retail Sales (0.2%), Retail Sales (0.4%), the BOC Rate Statement and
the BOC’s Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%). Wednesday then features the BOC Monetary Policy Report and the associated BOC Press Conference. That concludes the week’s important data, since Thursday and Friday offer little of note. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen
at 0.9947/79, 1.0064/83 and 1.0231, while support shows at 0.9815/83, 0.9734 and 0.9631.

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