|

|

|

|
|

|
Welcome to the Weekly Commentary
|
|

|

|
|
Last Week's Recap
|

|
EUR/USD EUR/USD extended its previous week's gains last week as
the U.S. Dollar declined against all major currencies amid a decrease in risk appetite with additional stimulus measures being considered by the Fed and other major central banks. The week began on a soft note with the rate trading sharply lower after making
itsweekly high of 1.2668 on Monday as optimism for a bailout of €100B to Spanish banks faded. On Tuesday, the rate reversed direction trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.2442 despite rising bond yields in Spanish and Italian bonds. The pair continued
gaining strength on Wednesday as bond yields began to recede and EZ Industrial Production came out with a decline of -0.8% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.9%. Also, U.S. Core Retail Sales declined by -0.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.1% and
Retail Sales, off by -0.2% m/m, versus an expected -0.1%. U.S. PPI was also disappointing, declining by -1.0% m/m, versus -0.6% expected. The rate continued improving on Thursday despite Spanish 10-year bonds breaching the unsustainable 7% level and after
a three notch downgrade by Moody's of Spain's credit rating, from A3 to Baa3. Economic numbers on Thursday had EZ CPI increase by +2.4% y/y, while the Core number increased by +1.6% y/y, both numbers as widely anticipated. Also, U.S. CPI declined by -0.3%
m/m, versus -0.2% expected and Core CPI, increasing by +0.2% m/m as widely anticipated. The rate then consolidated at a slightly higher level of Friday as traders awaited the Greek parliamentary vote on the 17th and after a speech by ECB President
Mario Draghi, in which he stated, "The Euro system will continue to supply liquidity to solvent banks where needed," EUR/USD went on to close the week at 1.2636 showing an overall gain of +0.9% from its previous weekly close.
|
|

|
USD/JPY USD/JPY lost ground last week as the BOJ left rates unchanged
and the United States reported lower than expected economic numbers. The week began with the rate trading moderately lower despite the Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index declining by -5.7, versus an expected reading of -2.4. The pair then rose on Tuesday as
Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity declined by -0.3% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.4%. On Wednesday, the pair fell marginally after making its weekly high of 79.74 after Japanese Core Machinery Orders increased by +5.7%, more than double the expected
increase of +2.0, while the United States reported weaker Retail Sales and PPI numbers. The rate then consolidated on Thursday on a weaker than expected U.S. CPI number. The pair then made its weekly low of 78.59 on Friday after the BOJ left its benchmark
Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10%. In the central bank's Monetary Policy Statement, the bank noted that "In global financial markets, some nervousness continues to be seen, mainly due to concern about the European debt problem. Particular attention should
therefore be given to developments in these markets for the time being." At a press conference after the rate decision, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa stated that, "There are no cunning steps to achieve financial system stability. An orthodox step would be
to provide liquidity. We have the means to provide own currency and foreign currencies. It would be important to supply abundant liquidity to calm worries. The Bank of Japan will take all possible measures to ward off harm to the country's financial system."
USD/JPY went on to close at 78.67 with an overall loss of -1.0% for the week.
|
|

|
GBP/USD GBP/USD extended its previous week's gains rising sharply
last week after George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer unveiled a £140B plan to save the British economy. The week began with the rate trading lower on Monday after comments in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper by Osborne, in which he stated, "Our recovery
- already facing powerful headwinds from high oil prices and the debt burden left behind by the boom years - is being killed off by the crisis on our doorstep." Cable then made its weekly low of 1.5468 on Tuesday before trading higher after the UK RICS House
Price Balance came out at -16%, versus an expected -17% print, while UK Manufacturing Production declined by -0.7%, versus an expected flat reading. The pair then dropped sharply on Wednesday as Sterling was pressured by events in the EZ and despite lower
than expected Retail Sales and PPI data from the United States. Cable then began climbing on Thursday after plans were announced that the UK Treasury along with the BOE would implement a plan to loosen credit by offering loans to banks under the market rates
for a period of three to four years. Also, the BOE will implement the Extended Collateral Term Repo facility that will provide six month liquidity against many forms of collateral. News of the additional stimulus measures carried into Friday, driving the rate
to make its weekly high of 1.5725 before trading lower as the UK Trade Balance showed a deficit of -10.1B, versus -8.5B expected. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.5710, showing an overall gain of +1.5% for the week.
|
|

|
AUD/USD AUD/USD continued rallying last week as risk assets were
favoured over the Greenback and with little in the way of economic data out of Australia. The week began with the rate trading sharply lower on Monday as concern over the EZ affected risk appetite. On Tuesday, the rate reversed direction trading higher after
making its weekly low of 0.9849 after the Australian NAB Business Confidence survey came out with a reading of -2, versus a previous reading of +4. The pair consolidated at a slightly lower level on Wednesday as the Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment index
printed at +0.3% versus a previous reading of +0.8% and the United States reported disappointing Retail Sales and PPI data. The rate then traded higher on Thursday as Australian MI Inflation Expectations printed at +2.3% versus a previous reading of +3.1%
and the United States reported a disappointing CPI number. The pair then made its weekly high of 1.0088 on Friday before settling at 1.0072, showing an overall gain of +1.6% from its previous weekly close.
|
|

|
USD/CAD USD/CAD lost ground last week as the Loonie joined the
other commodity currencies rallying against the Greenback. The week began on a strong note with the rate rising off of its weekly low of 1.02 on Monday in reaction to news from the Eurozone. On Tuesday, the pair declined after making its weekly high of 1.0324
as the prospect of further economic stimulus drove risk assets higher. Wednesday saw the rate trade higher despite disappointing economic data out of the United States. The pair then fell sharply on Thursday as the United States reported a lower than expected
CPI number, while Canadian NHPI increased by +0.2% m/m, versus +0.4% expected. The pair went on to close at 1.0213 on Friday, showing an overall loss of -0.5% for the week.
|
|

|
NZD/USD NZD/USD gained considerable ground last week as the RBNZ
left rates unchanged and the United States reported weaker economic data. The week began with the rate trading sharply lower as the Greenback firmed in reaction to news in the Eurozone. The pair then began trading higher after making its weekly low of 0.7859
on Tuesday in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The rate consolidated at a slightly lower level on Wednesday as the RBNZ left its benchmark Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5% as widely expected. In the RBNZ's published statement
after the rate release, the central bank stated, "Political and economic stresses in Europe, along with a run of weaker-than-expected data, have seen New Zealand's trading partner outlook worsen. Furthermore, there is a small but growing risk that conditions
in the euro area deteriorate more markedly than is projected in the June Statement." On Thursday, the pair began trading higher as the United States reported a lower than expected CPI number and rising Unemployment Claims. The pair then made its weekly high
of 0.7898 on Friday as the United States reported lower than expected economic numbers. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.7871, showing an overall gain of +2.2% from its previous weekly close.
|
|
Weekly Market Watch
The Week Ahead
USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the Fed's Rate Decision on Wednesday. Monday starts the week's highlights off with the G20
Meeting in Mexico that will run through Tuesday. They are typically attended by central bankers and finance ministers from 20 industrialised countries, including the G7 nations. Agenda items include the European debt crisis and IMF funding. G20 officials may
speak to reporters during the event, as well as issuing a formal statement after the meetings finish. Tuesday's other key events include Building Permits (0.73M) and Housing Starts (0.73M). Wednesday then features Crude Oil Inventories (last -0.2M), the Fed
Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%), the FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections and FOMC Press Conference. Thursday offers Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (381K), Flash Manufacturing PMI (53.7), Existing Home Sales (4.59M) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
(1.3). That data concludes the week's highlights since Friday offers little noteworthy data.
AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is a bit more active than last week, featuring the RBA's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. Monday starts the week's highlights off with New Motor Vehicle Sales (last -0.7%), and Tuesday's key events include
the G20 Meetings and the RBA's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday then features the G20 Meetings, the CB Leading Index (last 0.2%) and the MI Leading Index (last 0.4%), while Thursday and Friday offer little noteworthy data. Resistance for AUD/USD
is seen at 1.01413 and 1.0219/68, with support noted at 1.0001/7, 0.9820/49, 0.9663/89 and 0.9585.
NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring GDP data on Thursday. Monday starts the week's highlights off with the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey (last 102.4), and Tuesday's key events include the G20 Meetings.
Wednesday then features the G20 Meetings and the Current Account (last -1.16B), while Thursday offers GDP (0.4%). That data concludes the week's highlights since Friday offers little noteworthy data. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7898, 0.8040/86
and 0.8235/0.8317. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7783, 0.7616/67 and 0.7457/66.
GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the key Claimant Count Change data on Wednesday. Monday starts the week's highlights off with the Rightmove HPI (last 0.0%), a speech by MPC Member Tucker and the G20 Meetings, and Tuesday's
key events include the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey (45), the CPI (3.0%), the RPI (3.3%) and the concluding G20 Meetings. Wednesday then features the Claimant Count Change (-3.1K), the MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9) and the Unemployment Rate (8.2%),
while Thursday offers Retail Sales (1.1%), a tentatively scheduled UK 10-y Bond Auction (2.22 average yield and 1.9 bid to cover ratio last seen), CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-19) and a speech by MPC Member Weale. That data concludes the week's highlights
since Friday offers little noteworthy data. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5725/32 and 1.5804/47, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5629/48, 1.5599, 1.5410/23 and 1.5233/67.
EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, featuring the Greek Parliamentary Election on Sunday. At time of publication, the vote count looks in favour of the New Democracy Party who will likely look to form a pro-bailout
coalition with the Socialist Pasoks. A near-term exit of Greece from the euro currency bloc appears to have been avoided and markets are subsequently relieved.Monday starts the week's additional highlights off with the G20 Meetings, and Tuesday's key events
include the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (3.6), the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-5.7) and the concluding G20 Meetings. Wednesday then features German PPI (-0.1%), while Thursday offers French Flash Manufacturing PMI (44.6), French Flash Services
PMI (45.2), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (45.4), German Flash Services PMI (51.6), the Current Account (7.3B), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (44.9), EZ Flash Services PMI (46.5) and a speech by ECB President Draghi. Friday's important data then concludes the
week with the German Ifo Business Climate survey (106.2), the ECOFIN Meetings and the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey (-11.8). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.2624/66, 1.2834/1.2904 and 1.2994/1.3003, with support showing at 1.2435/96, 1.2288 and 1.2151.
JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week's highlights off with the G20 Meetings. Wednesday then features the G20 Meetings'
conclusion, plus the BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the Trade Balance (-0.36T). That data concludes the week's highlights since Thursday and Friday offer little noteworthy data. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 79.68/79, 80.14/61 and
81.68/96, with support indicated at 78.99, 77.66 and 76.55.
CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring Retail Sales data on Thursday. Monday starts the week's highlights off with Foreign Securities Purchases (3.41B) and the G20 Meetings, and Tuesday's key events include Wholesale
Sales (0.6%) and the G20 Meetings' conclusion. Wednesday then features little of note, while Thursday offers Core Retail Sales (0.2%), Retail Sales (0.3%) and a speech by BOC Governor Carney. Friday's important data then concludes the week with Core CPI (0.3%)
and CPI (0.3%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0311/24, 1.0439/45 and 1.0523, while support shows at 1.0200/46, 1.0151 and 1.0027/62.

|
|
|
|

|
|