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EUR/USD

EUR/USD lost fractionally last week as the Dollar proved resilient against the Euro despite EZ finance ministers finalizing the Greek bailout, while economic data for both countries came out mixed. The week began on a positive note with the rate rising after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde stated, "I welcome the commitment by European partners to bring back Greece's debt to substantially below 110 percent of GDP by 2022, conditional on full implementation of the program by Greece.” The pair then sold off on Tuesday despite a tentative agreement for releasing Greece’s bailout fund was reached, however several national parliaments, The Netherlands, Germany and Finland still need to approve the deal. Also supporting the Greenback were U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders, which rose +1.5% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.6%, while Durable Goods Orders came out with a flat reading, versus a decline of -0.6% expected, and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence printing at 73.7, versus 73.1 that was anticipated. The pair the resumed trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.2879 on Wednesday after disappointment over the Greek debt buyback and after the ECB reaffirmed its legal authority in overseeing 6000 EZ banks in the banking union after January 1st, 2013 with full implementation of the plan scheduled for January 1st, 2014. Wednesday economic data had U.S. New Home Sales come out at 368K, versus 387K expected.  On Thursday, the rate continued higher after positive results from an Italian 10-year bond auction, which saw the yield drop to 4.45%, its lowest level in two years, versus October’s auction that yielded 4.81%. Economic data on Thursday had U.S. Preliminary GDP increase to 2.7% q/q, versus 2.8% expected, while U.S. Pending Home Sales increased +5.2%, significantly higher than the +0.9% increase that was anticipated. The pair then made its weekly high of 1.3027 on Friday after the German parliament approved the Greek bailout deal by 473 to 100. Friday’s economic data had German Retail Sales decline -2.8% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.3% and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, which increased only +0.1%, versus +0.2% expected. EUR/USD went on to close the week at 1.2984, a decline of only -13 pips or -0.1% from its previous weekly close. 
 

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY gained slightly last week, adding to the previous week’s gains after the Japanese Cabinet approved an ¥880B stimulus package and the United States reported mixed economic data. The week began with the pair selling off on Monday after the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for its October 30th meeting stated that, “based on the Prime Minister's instruction on October 17, 2012, the Government will promptly formulate economic policy measures to counter risks of a downturn that Japan's economy faces at this juncture and to accelerate measures for realizing economic revitalization.” The rate then inched up on Tuesday after BOJ Governor Shirakawa in a speech stated that a strong yen would, “hurt Japan's economy by leading declines in exports and corporate revenues as well as worsening business sentiment.” On Wednesday, the rate consolidated after making its weekly low of 81.68 as the United States reported weaker than expected New Home Sales. The pair continued trading in a narrow range on Thursday, again showing very little change after Japanese Retail Sales declined -1.2% y/y, versus -0.7% that was expected. The rate then made its weekly high of 82.74 on Friday after news that the Japanese cabinet had approved an ¥880B stimulus package that would include ¥110B for jobs, ¥95B for new businesses and ¥132B for nursing homes.  Economic releases on Friday included Japanese Tokyo Core CPI, which declined -0.5% y/y, versus -0.4% expected and Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production, gaining +1.8% m/m, versus an expected decline of -1.8%. USD/JPY went on to close at 82.45, a gain of +7 pips and virtually unchanged on the week.
 

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD gained fractionally last week as the BOE picked former BOC Governor Mark Carney to succeed Mervyn King as head of the central bank, and the UK Financial Stability report warned on the UK’s banking system. The week began on a positive note as Cable traded higher in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The rate then weakened somewhat on Tuesday after the BOE announced that Mark Carney would succeed Mervyn King as head of the central bank in July of 2013. Tuesday’s economic numbers had UK Revised GDP increase by +1.0% q/q as widely expected and UK Preliminary Business Investment, rising +3.7% q/q, versus +1.3% expected. On Wednesday, Cable made its weekly low of 1.5961 as UK Net Lending to Individuals fell by -0.3B, versus an expected increase of +0.9B. The pair traded higher on Thursday after the BOE’s Financial Stability Report warned, “progress by banks in raising capital has slowed and investor confidence remains low.” Also, BOE Governor Mervyn King stated that, “Since we met in the summer, sentiment in financial markets has improved a little, supported by policy actions by a number of central banks. But the underlying picture for global growth remains weak and significant adjustments in both indebtedness and competitiveness are still required in the euro area.” Cable then sold off on Friday as indecision over resolving the U.S. fiscal cliff supported the Greenback, bringing GBP/USD to close at 1.6009, showing an overall loss of -0.1% for the week.
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AUD/USD  
AUD/USD lost some ground last week as asset flows favoured the U.S. Dollar with mixed economic data out of both countries. The week began with the rate rising fractionally in the absence of any significant economic releases out of either country. The pair then sold off on Tuesday after making its weekly high of 1.0488 as the United States reported better than expected Core Durable Goods Orders. On Wednesday, the rate improved after lower than expected U.S. New Home Sales and despite Australian Construction Work Done, which rose by +1.7% q/q, versus +2.4% that was expected. The pair then traded lower on Thursday after a significantly better than expected U.S. Pending Home Sales number and despite Australian Private Capital Expenditure increasing by +2.8% q/q, versus +2.1% expected and Australian HIA New Home Sales, increasing by +3.4%  m/m, versus a previous reading of -3.7%. Friday saw the rate make its weekly low of 1.0401 before consolidating at a higher level as Australian Private Sector Credit expanded by +0.1% m/m, versus +0.3% expected. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0425, showing an overall decline of -0.3% from its previous weekly close.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD gained fractionally last week as both countries reported mixed economic numbers. The week began on a positive note, with the pair trading higher on Monday in the absence of any significant economic releases out of either country. The pair then made its weekly low of 0.9905 on Tuesday despite better than expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders.  On Wednesday, the rate made its weekly high of 0.9960 before selling off after lower than expected U.S. New Home Sales. The rate then inched up on Thursday after the Canadian Current Account showed a deficit of -18.9B, versus -18.0B expected and Canadian RMPI, which came out with a flat reading, versus an expected decline of -0.4%. The pair continued higher on Friday after Canadian GDP came out flat, versus an expected increase of +0.1%, which brought USD/CAD to close at 0.9940, with an overall gain of +0.1% for the week.
 

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NZD/USD NZD/USD lost some ground last week as the New Zealand trade deficit widened and the United States reported mixed economic data. The week began with the pair trading lower after the New Zealand Trade Balance showed a deficit of -718M, versus -490M expected, nevertheless, the previous number was upwardly revised from -795M to -775M. The rate continued lower on Tuesday after New Zealand Inflation Expectations came out at 2.3% as was widely anticipated. On Wednesday, the pair traded higher after the United States announced lower than expected housing data. The rate then made its weekly high of 0.8265 on Thursday after New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence came out with a reading of +26.4, significantly higher than the previous reading of +17.2. The rate then sold off on Friday as asset flows favoured the Greenback, which brought NZD/USD to close the week at 0.8195, showing an overall decline of -0.4% from its previous weekly close.

 

Weekly Market Watch

The Week Ahead

 
USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is less active than last week, featuring key jobs data on Wednesday and Friday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with ISM Manufacturing PMI (51.5), while Tuesday offers little noteworthy data. Wednesday’s key events include ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (127K), Revised Nonfarm Productivity (2.7%), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.8), Factory Orders (0.1%) and Crude Oil Inventories (last -0.3M). Thursday then features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (381K), and Friday’s important data then concludes the week with Non-Farm Payrolls (91K), Unemployment Rate (7.9%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%) and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (82.1).
 
AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is much busier than last week, featuring the RBA’s Rate Decision on Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with the MI Inflation Gauge (0.1%), Retail Sales (0.4%), ANZ Job Advertisements (-4.6%) and Company Operating Profits (-2.8%). Tuesday’s key events include Building Approvals (-1.8%), the Current Account (-14.7B), the RBA’s Cash Rate Decision (a 25 bp cut to 3.00% is expected) and the associated RBA Rate Statement. Wednesday then features the AIG Services Index (last 42.8), GDP (0.6%) and a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Lowe, while Thursday offers a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, the Employment Change (0.2K) and the Unemployment Rate (5.5%). Friday’s important data then concludes the week with the Trade Balance (-2.15B). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0470/89, 1.0518 and 1.0612/23, with support noted at 1.0396/1.0418, 1.0330/58 and 1.0201/86.
 
NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is more active than last week, featuring the RBNZ’s Rate Decision (2.50%) on Thursday. Also out on Thursday is the RBNZ Press Conference, the RBNZ Rate Statement and the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. The rest of the week offers little noteworthy data. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8248/87, 0.8307/54 and 0.8468. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.8172, 0.8050/0.8110 and 0.7912/66.
 
GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the BOE Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Manufacturing PMI (48.1), and Tuesday’s key events include the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (-0.1%), the Halifax HPI (Dec 4th-7th, 0.2%) and Construction PMI (50.7). Wednesday then features Services PMI (51.1) and the Autumn Forecast Statement, while Thursday offers the Trade Balance (-8.8B), the Asset Purchase Facility (375B), the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement and the Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%). Friday’s important data then concludes the week with Manufacturing Production (-0.2%), Consumer Inflation Expectations (3.2%) and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.5%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6037/62, 1.6143/77 and 1.6216, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5961/96, 1.5912 and 1.5825.
 
EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is more active than last week, featuring the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Spanish Manufacturing PMI (43.5), Italian Manufacturing PMI (45.9) and the Eurogroup Meetings, and Tuesday’s key events include the Spanish Unemployment Change (last 128.2K) and the ECOFIN Meetings. Wednesday then features Spanish Services PMI (last 41.2), Italian Services PMI (46.0), EZ Retail Sales (-0.1%) and the tentatively scheduled Spanish 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 5.52 percent, with a 1.8 bid to cover ratio). Thursday offers the tentatively scheduled French 10-year Bond Auction, German Factory Orders (0.9%), the ECB’s Minimum Bid Rate Decision (0.75%) and the associated ECB Press Conference. Friday’s important data then concludes the week with a speech by ECB President Draghi, German Industrial Production (-0.4%) and a speech by German Bundesbank President Weidmann. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.2990/1.3008, 1.3020/82 and 1.3139/72, with support showing at 1.2801/90, 1.2661/91 and 1.2465.
 
JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring Average Cash Earnings data on Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Capital Spending (3.7%) and a speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa.  Tuesday’s key events include Average Cash Earnings (0.4%)., and that concludes the week since the rest of the week offers little noteworthy data. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 82.74/83, 83.30/38 and 84.17, with support indicated at 81.45/86, 79.65/80.67 and 78.83/79.46.
 
CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring key jobs data on Friday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with the BOC’s Rate Statement and Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%). Wednesday then features little of note, while Thursday offers Building Permits (2.3%) and the Ivey PMI (58.8). Friday’s important data then concludes the week with the Employment Change (9.3K), Unemployment Rate (7.4%) and Labor Productivity (last -0.5%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 0.9960, 1.0018/83 and 1.0231/49, while support shows at 0.9914/21, 0.9815/83 and 0.9734/63.
 
 

 

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