International Air Transport Association

Airline Business Confidence Index - July 2011


Released 18 July 2011


Key points from our full report on the quarterly
survey of airline business confidence
:

 

 

  • The squeeze on airline profits seemed to intensify in Q2, but expectations for profits in the year ahead improved after the sharp decline in the April survey;
  • Over the next 12 months a small net balance of respondents expect an improvement in profits;
  • This is considerably better than the situation in the April survey but shows airlines are still far less confident than they were in 2010;
  • Linking the survey results to actual profit outcomes suggests that in April airlines were expecting losses, as in 2008, but are now expecting moderate profits;
  • The improvement over April was driven by cost (fuel) expectations, which have diminished to an expectation of a small rather than a large rise;
  • Only a small net balance of airlines expect to be able to raise passenger yields over the next 12 months, and cargo yields are not expected to rise;
  • But airlines are confident that passenger and cargo markets will continue to expand, with a majority that has barely declined from the peak of the post-recession rebound;
  • Airlines are continuing to increase jobs as a result;
  • Whereas the April survey had shown airlines more bearish than IATA's own forecasts, this July survey has shown airline confidence more in line with the forecast of $4 billion in net post-tax profits this year.

- IATA Economics -

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