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News
Strong 2010 but Uncertainties in 2011
Severe
Weather Dents Recovery
Geneva - The International Air Transport Association
(IATA) reported full-year 2010 demand statistics for international
scheduled air traffic that showed an 8.2% increase in the passenger
business and a 20.6% increase in freight. Demand growth outstripped
capacity increases of 4.4% for passenger and 8.9% for cargo. Average
passenger load factor for the year was 78.4% which is a 2.7 percentage
point improvement on 2009. The freight load factor saw a 5.2 percentage
point improvement to 53.8%.
Compared to the pre-recession levels of early 2008, December air travel
volumes were 4% higher. Air freight was 1% higher than pre-recession
levels; however volumes have fallen 5% since the peak of the
post-recession inventory re-stocking boom in early 2010.
“The world is moving again. After the biggest demand decline in the
history of aviation in 2009, people started to travel and do business
again in 2010. Airlines ended the year slightly ahead of early 2008
volumes, but with a pathetic 2.7% profit margin. The challenge is to turn
the demand for mobility into sustainable profits,” said Giovanni
Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Severe weather Europe and North America in December put a dent in the
industry’s recovery. It is estimated that this shaved 1% off of total
traffic demand for the month. As a result passenger demand dipped to 4.9%
growth on December 2009 levels, significantly lower than the 8.2% growth
recorded in November. Hardest hit was Europe which saw December growth
slow to 3.3%.
International
Passenger Demand
- Asia-Pacific
carriers recorded a 9% year-on-year increase in
passenger demand in 2010. While December 2010 passenger demand
growth slowed to 2.9%, it is 11% higher when compared to December
2008, just ahead of the industry’s 9-10% improvement over the same
period. The economies of China and India continue to lead the
region’s recovery.
- European
carriers saw year-on-year passenger demand increase
5.1%. This is double the capacity increase of 2.6%, which shored-up
the passenger load factor at 79.4%. But the continent’s economic
uncertainty and continuing debt crisis limited yield improvements.
Moreover, Europe was the hardest hit by December’s severe weather
which slowed demand growth to 3.3%, less than half the 7.8% growth
recorded in November.
- North
American carriers recorded year-on-year increases in
passenger demand of 7.4% in 2010. A key feature in 2010 was the
capacity discipline, where full-year capacity was up by just 3.9%
(leading to a sharp recovery in profits). The passenger load factor
at 82.2% for the full year (up from 79.6% in 2009) may prove
difficult to maintain if capacity additions accelerate over the
period ahead. Passenger demand in December increased 6.7%.
- Middle
Eastern carriers reported the strongest full year
growth at 17.8% on the back of a 13.2% capacity increase fueled
largely by aircraft deliveries to Gulf-based airlines. Load factors
for the region showed a 3 percentage point increase to 76.0%.
December demand was 14.1% above previous year levels and 35% higher
than in December 2008, illustrating the structural shift that is
taking place in the industry as a result of the region’s expansion.
- Latin
American carriers saw the whole year demand grow
8.2% despite a 1.1% decrease in December, a reflection of the demise
of Mexicana. But the reality is that for 2010 overall, the
total is almost 8% more than 2008.
- African
carriers experienced a sharp rebound of nearly 12.9% in
2010, although load factors remained well below the industry
average, at 69.1%. Their year ended with December demand at 11.7%
above previous year levels.
International Freight
Demand
- Freight
demand growth varied wildly over the year from a high of 35.2% in
May to a low of 5.8% in November. Overall the industry is trending
towards normal growth pattern in line with the historical growth
rate of 5-6%.
- The regional variation in
growth remains particularly marked. Latin American carriers recorded
the highest full-year growth rate of 29.1%, followed by Middle East
carriers (accounting for 11% of the market) at 26.7%, Asia Pacific
airlines (with a 45% market share) grew by 24.0%, Africa at 23.8%
and North America by 21.8%. Against these industry gains,
Europe’s 10.8% growth stands out as exceptionally weak.
Oil
Prices
“The story this month is the sharp rise in oil prices. We
predicted that 2011 would see a consecutive second year of profitability
but with industry profits falling by 40% to $9.1 billion. This was based
on an oil price of $84 per barrel (Brent). Fuel accounts for 27% of
operating costs and a sustained rise in the oil price could spoil the
party. With uncertainties in the Middle East, oil prices are now hovering
near the $100 per barrel mark. For every dollar increase in the average
price of a barrel of oil over the year, airlines face the difficult task
of recovering an additional $1.6 billion in costs,” said Bisignani.
View full December traffic results
- IATA -
For more information, please contact:
Anthony Concil
Director Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for Editors:
- IATA
(International Air Transport Association) represents some 230
airlines comprising 93% of scheduled international air traffic.
- You can
follow us at http://twitter.com/iata2press for
news specially catered for the media.
- Explanation
of measurement terms:
- RPK:
Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger traffic
- ASK:
Available Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacity
- PLF:
Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used. In comparison of 2009 to
2008, PLF indicates point differential between the periods compared
- FTK:
Freight Tonne Kilometers measures actual freight traffic
- AFTK:
Available Freight Tonne Kilometers measures available total freight
capacity
- FLF:
Freight Load Factor is % of AFTKs used
- IATA
statistics cover international scheduled air traffic; domestic
traffic is not included.
- All figures
are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication
plus estimates for missing data. Historic figures may be
revised.
- International
passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are:
Europe 35.6%, Asia-Pacific 29.6%, North America 15.1%, Middle East
11.7%, Latin America 4.3%, Africa 3.9%.
- International
freight traffic market shares by region in terms of FTK are:
Asia-Pacific 45.4%, Europe 23.7%, North America 15.8%, Middle East
10.7%, Latin America 3.2%, Africa 1.2%.
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