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News
Air Traffic Dipped in November
Geneva - The International Air Transport Association
(IATA) announced international scheduled traffic results for November
showing 8.2% year-on-year passenger traffic growth and a 5.4% increase
for freight. The passenger load factor for November averaged 75.6% while
the freight load factor stood at 55.2% for the month.
November saw traffic growth slow from the 10% increase
recorded in the passenger business and the 14.5% growth in freight in
October. The slowdown in 2010 is partially skewed because of the
exceptionally rapid rise in traffic volumes recorded during the fourth
quarter of 2009. However, when viewed in absolute terms, air travel fell
by 0.8% and air freight fell by 1.1% between October and November 2010.
This slower growth does not necessarily signal a negative
trend. Even with the decline in November, passenger and freight traffic
are still expanding at annualized rates of between 5-6% which is in line
with the industry’s historical growth trend.
“The industry is shifting gears in the recovery
cycle. Growth is slowing towards normal historical levels in the 5-6%
range. Relative weakness in developed markets is being offset by the
momentum of economic expansion in developing markets. We see a strong end
to 2010 that boosted the year’s profit forecast to $15.1 billion.
Slowing traffic growth is in line with our projections for a reduced
profit of $9.1 billion in 2011. That’s a 1.5% margin. More hard
work will be needed in the New Year to achieve sustainable levels of
profitability,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director
General and CEO.
International
Passenger Demand
- The level
of international air travel is now 4% above the pre-recession peak
of early 2008. All regions, except Africa, reported a slowing in
year-on-year growth rates from October to November.
- Europe’s
carriers recorded 7.3% growth in passenger traffic,
below the 9.4% recorded in October. Overall travel performed by the
region’s carriers is only slightly ahead of the pre-recession
levels of early 2008. In absolute terms there was a 1.7% fall in
traffic volumes for the region’s carriers between October and
November. Industrial labor action and adverse weather conditions
particularly affected Europe’s carriers at the very end of the
month. The impact of these will continue to be seen in December’s
traffic.
- North
American carriers saw their growth slow from 12.4%
in October to 9.5% in November. Capacity growth in November
was 9.5%, resulting in a load factor of 78.1%, the highest among the
regions. November passenger traffic levels for North American
carriers equaled the pre-recession levels of early 2008.
- Asia-Pacific
carriers saw their growth slow from 7.3% in October to
5.8% in November. Capacity expanded relatively in tandem (5.9%) for
a load factor of 75.6%. Despite the region’s strong economic
growth and financial performance, November traffic levels were still
2% below pre-recession levels.
- Latin
American carriers showed the most dramatic decline
in growth rates—from 4.9% in October to virtually zero in
November. The lingering impact of the Mexicana failure is the
largest contributing factor in this decline which resulted in a 2.1%
absolute contraction of travel performed by the region’s
carriers between October and November. Adjusting figures to
eliminate the impact of Mexicana, the region would be experiencing
growth in the low double digits. The region’s load factor
stands at 77.5%.
- Middle East
carriers saw their growth rate decline from 17.8% in
October to 16.7% in November. The region’s carriers
handled 16% more traffic in November than at the pre-recession peak
in early 2008, showing that they have gained market share over the
course of the recession and the recovery. The region recorded a load
factor of 74.3%, below the global average of 75.6%.
- African
carriers were the only region to show an increase in
growth rates from October (12.6%) to November (16.4%). The
region’s carriers moved 11% more travelers in November than
they did at the pre-recession peak in early 2008.
Freight Demand
- The air
freight recovery hit a peak in May 2010. Compared to that peak,
volumes have fallen 7%. The volume of air freight in November was
equal to pre-recession levels of early 2008.
- November’s
year-on-year growth of 5.4% is a significant shift from the 14.5%
recorded in October. This was exaggerated by the exceptionally
strong performance in November 2009. In absolute terms, there was a
1.1% fall in freight volumes from October to November. All regions,
except Africa, showed dramatic drops in year-on-year growth rates
from October to November.
- November
freight carried by Asia-Pacific
carriers showed a 4.1% year-on-year increase. The
region’s carriers moved a similar amount of freight in
November that they did at the pre-recession peak of 2008.
- Middle Eastern
carriers saw 12.4% year-on-year growth for November.
The region’s carriers handled 14% more freight in November
than they did at the pre-recession peak in early 2008.
- North
American carriers showed 1.5% year-on-year growth in
November, but overall volumes remain 7% below the pre-recession
levels of early 2008. European
carriers experienced a similar pattern with 6.6%
year-on-year growth in November but overall volumes remaining 12%
below pre-recession levels.
“The year-end holiday season has been tough for
travelers and for airlines. Exceptionally adverse weather conditions in
Europe and the US resulted in travel chaos. Passengers were
inconvenienced. Airlines saw lost revenues and saw costs rise. As the
backlogs of stranded passengers clear and the situation normalizes, there
are two opportunities that must not be lost. The first is to learn and
apply lessons from this difficult season so that all stakeholders in the
industry’s infrastructure are better prepared for future
exceptional situations,” said Bisignani.
“The second opportunity is to evaluate the
regulatory world in which aviation operates. In 2010, the Icelandic
volcano and the year-end adverse weather made the value of air transport
crystal clear. Modern life and the global economy depend on aviation.
Whether you are a business person operating in the global market,
families keeping in touch across distances or heads-of-state on important
foreign missions, aviation is critical. While memories of the travel
chaos are still fresh, it’s time to evaluate a long list of
government imposed industry handicaps, including excessive taxation,
out-dated ownership restrictions, over-regulation where market forces
could do better, under-investment in infrastructure and generally poor
regulation of monopoly suppliers. We must not let governments forget all
of this while waiting for a change of seasons,” said Bisignani.
“For our part, IATA is launching Vision 2050—a
dialogue on the industry’s future among strategic thinkers from
government, industry and academia. We will meet in Singapore this
February with an important mission to build a vision for a successful and
sustainable industry in four decades. The group will be guided by the
inspirational support of Singapore’s Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew
and the expertise on competitiveness of Harvard University’s
Professor Michael Porter. Our common goal is to fortify the foundations
of the industry to support its ever-growing role in supporting modern
life in our global world,” said Bisignani.
View full November traffic results
- IATA -
For more information, please contact:
Anthony Concil
Director Corporate Communications
Tel: +41 22 770 2967
Email: corpcomms@iata.org
Notes for Editors:
- IATA
(International Air Transport Association) represents some 230
airlines comprising 93% of scheduled international air traffic.
- You can
follow us at http://twitter.com/iata2press for
news specially catered for the media.
- Explanation
of measurement terms:
- RPK:
Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger traffic
- ASK: Available
Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacity
- PLF:
Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used. In comparison of 2009 to
2008, PLF indicates point differential between the periods compared
- FTK:
Freight Tonne Kilometers measures actual freight traffic
- AFTK:
Available Freight Tonne Kilometers measures available total freight
capacity
- FLF:
Freight Load Factor is % of AFTKs used
- IATA
statistics cover international scheduled air traffic; domestic
traffic is not included.
- All figures
are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication
plus estimates for missing data. Historic figures may be
revised.
- International
passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are:
Europe 37.6%, Asia-Pacific 28.8%, North America 14.2%, Middle East
11.5%, Latin America 4.1%, Africa 3.8%.
- International
freight traffic market shares by region in terms of FTK are:
Asia-Pacific 44.3%, Europe 25.2%, North America 15.2%, Middle East
10.8%, Latin America 3.1%, Africa 1.3%.
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